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The company judges: Restrain risk of credit of the landed vigilance that heat up

From;    Author:Stand originally

Go a few years, truly a large number of foreign capital enter Chinese landed market, its basically have 3 kinds of ways: It is with land agent the identity develops landed project; 2 it is with casting travel identity buys house of business affairs building, these two kinds are not hot money, and flow into by lawful channel, and fluidity is poorer. The 3rd kind of way is the foreign capital that “ puts usurious ” , this part attributes true heat fund. Southeast Asia country also is landed company before the crisis in those days external debt of many borrow dollar builds a house, after capital flows into abrupt backwater, leap of bubble burst, debt, bank and exchange rate are close to breaking down. Say accordingly, the hot money of production crisis is not go into business to fry a building to borrow money however.

A few hot money that flow into Chinese landed market should belong to this kind, what do not cross landed company borrow is a RMB (hot money still has) of exchange rate accrual, and Chinese foreign exchange reserve is enough. Before 2004, the foreign capital that enters domestic land industry is less, after this begins policy adjusting control, ask estate business develops scale of project own reserves from former 20% rise 35% , hit the investment ability of land agent badly. And building city is right now hot just perform, accordingly, besides the part bold bank offers development business “ to cross the bridge outside loan ” , a lot of development business heat up money with what flow into below the help in capital broker chime in easily, development business mortgages with equity, in acceptance short-term financing undertakes after higher return rate. Hot money goes in for sth in a large scale to develop business building offerred a possibility, stimulated more residence development and land superheating, affect macroscopical adjusting control, and go tall ceaselessly as house price, estate disappear drops stage by stage painfully, these two processes that deviate from are foamy accumulate.

2007 second half of the year, the bank begins to examine room of the 2nd ring strictly to borrow money, the Central Bank begins to cease in order to add stage by stage reach raise the measure such as reserve ratio constrictive money is supplied, restrained the fanaticism of the market in time thereby, because was last year,hot money of second half of the year begins large-scale flow into, inflation goes high continuously and the RMB appreciates quickly, if was not restrained in time,include the stock market and building city inside asset value, may appear higher inflation and asset bubble are collateral. Say accordingly, the bubble of Chinese building city probably not big, external debt (hot money) crisis possibility is very small, because mortgage dimensions,do not pass too big, should prevent to economic depression and asset value drop too quickly and appear credit risk, in the meantime, loan of very major company also is mix with land praedial etc for pawn.
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